In today’s housing market, where supply is very low and demand is very high, home values are increasing rapidly. One major challenge in such a market is the bank appraisal.
If prices are surging, it is difficult for appraisers to find adequate, comparable sales (similar houses in the neighborhood that closed recently) to defend the price when performing the appraisal for the bank.
Every month, Quicken Loans measures the disparity between what a homeowner believes their house is worth as compared to an appraiser’s evaluation in their Home Price Perception Index (HPPI). Here is a chart showing that difference for each of the last 12 months.
The gap between the homeowner vs. appraiser’s opinion has started to head in the right direction (closer to even), as June saw a slight decrease from May’s -1.95% to -1.89% nationally.
Homeowners in the western part of the country, however, have been pleasantly surprised as their homes have appraised higher than they expected. Denver received its highest HPPI last month as homes came in an average of 3.28% higher than the homeowner believed it would. Nine of the twelve metro areas that had a positive HPPI last month were located in the west.
Quicken Loans’ Chief Economist, Bob Walters explains:
“The hot housing markets along the West Coast are growing quicker than owners realize, giving way to higher than expected prices for buyers and more home equity for existing owners.
On the other hand, the housing markets are more balanced in the East and Midwest, leading owners to be slightly over-enthusiastic about their home’s appreciation.”
Every house on the market has to be sold twice; once to a prospective buyer and then to the bank (through the bank’s appraisal). With escalating prices, the second sale might be even more difficult than the first. If you are planning on entering the housing market this year, let’s get together to talk about what’s happening in our area.
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According to Bankrate’s latest Financial Security Index Poll, Americans who have money to set aside for the next 10 years would rather invest in real estate than any other type of investment.
Bankrate asked Americans to answer the following question:
Real Estate came in as the top choice with 25% of all respondents, while cash investments (such as savings accounts and CD’s) came in second with 23%. The chart below shows the full results:
Sterling White, co-founder of Holdfolio, gave one reason as to why real estate may have ranked so high.
“Houses are tangible. You can physically see and feel the product. So you know where your money is going.”
July’s poll also found that for the “26th consecutive month, Americans’ sense of financial well-being improved when taking into account debt, savings, net worth, job security, and overall financial situation.”
There are several reasons, both financial and non-financial, as to why homeownership makes sense. It is nice to see that Americans have returned to a belief in homeownership as the best investment.
If you are debating listing your house for sale this year, here is the #1 reason not to wait!
The National Association of REALTORS’ (NAR) Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun recently commented on the inventory shortage:
“With demand holding firm and homes selling even faster than a year ago, the notable increase in closings in recent months took a dent out of what was available for sale.
Realtors are acknowledging, with increasing frequency lately, that buyers continue to be frustrated by the tense competition and lack of affordable homes for sale in their market.”
The latest Existing Home Sales Report shows that there is currently a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale. This remains lower than the 6-month supply necessary for a normal market and 5.8% lower than June 2015.
The chart below details the year-over-year inventory shortages experienced over the last 12 months:
Anything less than a six-month supply is considered a “Seller’s Market”.
Let’s get together and discuss the supply conditions in your neighborhood to be able to assist you in gaining access to the buyers who are ready, willing and able to buy now!
Just over a month ago, the United Kingdom decided to withdraw from the European Union in a decision commonly known as Brexit. At that time there was a lot of speculation on how that decision would impact the U.S. residential mortgage market. Today, we want to look at the impact of the first 30 days.
Most believed that the Brexit decision would drive mortgage rates down and keep them down for some time. As CoreLogic reported:
“First-time buyers can count on continued low mortgage rates to help with affordability issues. Similarly, re-setting adjustable rate loans will have less of a rate shock, and in some cases may even go down.”
Initially, rates did fall. However, Freddie Mac has reported that rates have stabilized and have actually increased marginally each of the last two weeks. This prompted Freddie Mac Chief EconomistSean Beckett to say:
“Post-Brexit volatility tapered off over the last two weeks, allowing interest rates to bounce back a bit from their near-record 30-year mortgage rate lows.”
And, Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon believes rates will continue to increase:
“Given we expect Brexit will have a minimal impact on the U.S. economy, we see no reason to change our forecast for mortgage rates to reach 3.85% by the end of this year, and 5.0% by the middle of 2018.”
For now, it appears that the impact of Brexit on the U.S. housing market was not as dramatic as some thought it could be.
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Some Highlights:
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Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. The report revealed that this May’s numbers weren’t quite as good as the year before:
“With last month’s decline, the index reading is still the third highest in the past year, but declined year-over-year for the first time since August 2014.”
The mainstream media ran headlines highlighting that the index had dropped for the first time in two years. Many read this as an indication that the housing market must be slowing down.
If you were thinking that now may be the perfect time to put your house on the market, these reports may have caused you some concern. We want to alleviate that concern today.
Though it is true that the index dropped in last month’s report, let’s take a closer look at the numbers. Below is a graph of the index since January 2014. We can see that the index has increased every month over the last eighteen months, leading up to this past May.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explained that it wasn’t a slowing of the market that caused the index to slip, but instead a lack of housing inventory:
“Total housing inventory at the end of each month has remarkably decreased year-over-year now for an entire year. There are simply not enough homes coming onto the market to catch up with demand.”
Here is a graph depicting the situation Yun was referencing:
Did the latest numbers from the Pending Home Sales Index cause you to question if now is a good time to put your house on the market? If anything, it indicated the exact opposite: that this may be the perfect time to sell!!
